Bostoncoin update Oct 1 2024
Jeremy Britton
Are we out of the woods yet?
September was an eventful month for the cryptocurrency market, marked by big Bitcoin price movements, strong performance in the altcoin sector, and key macroeconomic events shaping investor sentiment. We have compiled an overview of the month’s activities, grouped into three main categories: Bitcoin, Altcoins, and macroeconomic factors affecting crypto.
Bitcoin Performance
Bitcoin continued to capture the spotlight in September, achieving a significant breakout above the US$65,000 mark. This milestone fuelled optimism among traders and investors, with Bitcoin trading at US$65,424 by the end of the month. Analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research noted that Bitcoin’s price increase was instrumental in driving the broader cryptocurrency market, creating a ripple effect across altcoins as investors sought to capitalise on potential gains.
The price surge was partly attributed to positive developments in the regulatory and financial sectors. Launching new spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States spurred increased institutional interest, setting the stage for a potential supply squeeze. This, in turn, created a bullish environment for Bitcoin, with some analysts predicting the OG crypto could reach US$130,000 by year-end.
Market participants pointed to on-chain data to support these bullish forecasts. Bitcoin’s exchange flow multiple, a widely watched indicator of market volatility, reached its lowest point of the year in September, a pattern similar to what occurred before Bitcoin’s 2023 rally. This suggests the market might be gearing up for a major upward trend as we move into Q4.
However, despite the strong performance, Bitcoin did experience some pullbacks toward the end of the month. On September 30, the price dropped to $63,531, which was attributed to heightened concerns about a global recession and increased short positions in Bitcoin futures. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, but factors such as global economic stability and Federal Reserve policies will play a critical role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.
Altcoin Market Trends and Performance
Altcoins experienced a resurgence in September, with several outperforming Bitcoin in terms of percentage gains. According to Capriole Investments, the Altcoin Speculation Index, which tracks the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, jumped 13% over the past month. This shift indicates growing speculative interest in the altcoin market as investors diversified their portfolios in search of higher returns.
Leading the pack was Sei (SEI), which posted a remarkable 37.79% increase since mid-September. Wormhole (W) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) also saw substantial gains of 32.83% and 32.08%, respectively. Shiba Inu is a zero-utility memecoin, modelled on DOGE, and seemed to surge in popularity mostly in South Korea, because it is cute. Wormhole is a profitable coin project with an actual use-case scenario, so we hold it as part of our DART portfolio.
Macroeconomic factors further buoyed the surge in altcoin interest. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in mid-September, and high-beta altcoins gained momentum as traditional investments like bonds and deposits became less attractive. This environment led to increased capital inflows into altcoins, contributing to a rise in altcoin market caps and a decline in Bitcoin’s dominance from 59.08% to 57.51% by the end of the month.
Despite the bullish sentiment, the altcoin market also exhibited some volatility, reflecting broader uncertainty. Analysts suggested that the altcoin rally could be just beginning, with the potential for even more significant gains in the next six months, especially if macroeconomic conditions remain favourable.
Macroeconomic Factors Shaping the Crypto Market
Macroeconomic developments played a pivotal role in influencing the crypto markets throughout September. One of the key drivers was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18.
This move signalled a more accommodative or dovish monetary policy stance, which is typically bullish for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. As a result, there was a noticeable shift in capital from traditional investments to digital assets, with both Bitcoin and altcoins benefiting from this trend.
In addition, global economic uncertainties added another layer of complexity to the market. Weiss Ratings highlighted the ongoing crisis in the Chinese housing market as a potential catalyst for increased interest in cryptocurrencies. Amidst growing economic instability, Chinese investors are seeking alternative stores of value, outside the stockmarket and away from troubled property and bonds.
For more about bonds, please refer to the September MoneyGeek article featuring our Bostoncoin CFO .
While the overall sentiment in the crypto market was positive, concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its upward momentum in the face of global headwinds persisted. Analysts from Cointelegraph noted that while reaching $100,000 or higher by year-end is still a possibility, it would require a series of favourable developments from both the regulatory and economic fronts. New legislation? Yes, please!
September was a dynamic month for the cryptocurrency market, characterised by strong Bitcoin performance, renewed interest in altcoins, and significant macroeconomic developments. The stage is set for an exciting fourth quarter, with many analysts predicting continued growth as the market responds to evolving global conditions and upcoming events.
Before we close, a look backwards to go forwards:
The BTC halving cycles seem to have a pattern
December 2012: price six months before halving $5.66. Price one year later $850.29. Growth 15 017%
July 2016: price six months before halving $235.48. Price one year later $4005.28. Growth 1 701%
May 2020: price six months before halving $7 339.24. Price one year later $58 943.16 Growth 803%
April 2024: price six months before halving $27 946.12. Price one year later $??? Growth ???%
Yes, the total new growth has been getting lower each time, but it still far exceeds 100%. Where do you think the Bitcoin price will be in April 2025?
Jeremy is off to the USA this week for a series of investor meetings, presentations, crypto and VC events. We pray for his safe travels and for his success in bringing the light of crypto to the dark recesses of family offices, chartered accountancy offices and VC firms.
If you are in New York, Scottsdale, Los Angeles, or Las Vegas, please contact the office to see if JB can meet you and buy you a cuppa. If you have family or friends in those areas, we have a limited number of tickets available for the investor presentation and networking events. Hollar!
Sept 30 2024
BOS NAV AUD 60.8084741
BOS Price AUD 66.8893215
BOS Price USD 46.203534
Standouts for the Bostoncoin portfolio this month include
Arweave 552%
Sui 366%
Injective 308%
Sept 30 2024
DART NAV AUD 166.834017
DART Price AUD 183.517418
DART Price USD 126.56288
Standouts for the DARTcoin portfolio this month include
Bittensor 1060%
Stacks 402%
Avalanche 314%
Tell your friends, tell your enemies, tell your accountant: crypto is here to stay, and Bostoncoin is the simpler and safer way 🙂 See you next month
